Beyond the Headlines: COP28 – is this the signal of the end of the fossil fuel era?
COP28 13 December 2023
After another COP that went into overtime, we were present at the closing plenary on 13th December to witness the adoption of the revised decision for the first Global Stock Take (GST) of the Paris Agreement.
Having waited for almost 2 hours for proceedings to kick off, the moment of adoption of the First GST decision was over in less than a minute. There was a standing ovation, cheers and whoops from many in the room. This was a far cry from the 10th and 11th December, when hope seemed lost at the state of the GST draft decision text and Earth Matters’ Managing Director, Tanzeed Alam, provided comments to the Business Breakfast of Dubai Eye Radio station at that point in proceedings .
Tanzeed Alam, Founder of Earth Matters Consulting at COP28
We were surprised by the lack of objections to the GST from the floor. But sadly, this was because the Alliance of Small Island States, constituting 39 of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, had not managed to arrive in time. Their statement received a standing ovation from many, and essentially said the process had failed to include and consult them, calling for stronger wording around peaking of emissions by 2025.
Since the UAE was announced as the host of COP28, the issue that had caught the headlines and caused the most controversy, was whether there would be a ‘phase out’ or ‘phase down’ of fossil fuels. We got neither, instead the following text was adopted:
“Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050, in keeping with the science”.
This was the first time ever at a COP that there was language talking about the need to reduce reliance on all fossil fuels. It has taken 30 years of COPs to get to this point, which is not in keeping with climate science that for many decades has been clearly stating that burning fossil fuels has been the main driver of climate change. At least we now have a recognition that the root cause of climate change has to be addressed head on – our use of coal, oil and gas.
How quickly the transition happens away from fossil fuels will be the key thing to keep an eye on. Some will keep resisting and others will embrace it more quickly. There was text in the document recognising the need for transition fuels – this could be seen as ‘weaselly’ words to appease the likes of Saudi Arabia and OPEC. However, when transition away from fossil fuels is added to the more tangible goal of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, we now have elements of an energy systems transformation in place that could be game changing.
COP28UAE Dubai
This is also the first time that a COP addressed other systemic drivers of climate change, being those emissions from food and agricultural systems, deforestation and degradation of natural ecosystems. A clear connection has been made to the Global Biodiversity Framework and this integration of issues also point towards a more systemic and holistic approach to climate action. The importance of nature and food to the adaptation agenda are another great benefit of addressing these issues. Kudos has to go here to HE Razan Al Mubarak (High Level Climate Champion and President of the IUCN) for championing the nature agenda, as well as HE Mariam Al Mheiri (UAE Minister of Climate Change and Environment) on the food agenda.
We also saw the Loss and Damage Fund being mobilised, with over $700m being pledged towards it, with the World Bank initially in charge for the first four years. While the amount pledged is nowhere near the amount that is estimated as being needed for L&D, the UAE’s own commitment of $100m was groundbreaking in that it broke a major red line for the country. That red line being that its commitment was through the UN Climate Convention, breaking the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities. All eyes are now on richer emerging economies to do the same, like China, Saudi Arabia and so forth.
However, it is clear this agreement is not perfect. The money is still not flowing fast enough and the finance gap for addressing climate change was outlined in the GST decision:
USD 5.8–5.9 trillion for the pre-2030 period needed for developing country Parties to implement their Nationally Determined Contributions.
Adaptation finance needs of developing countries are estimated at USD 215–387 billion annually up until 2030.
USD 4.3 trillion per year needs to be invested in clean energy up until 2030, increasing thereafter to USD 5 trillion per year up until 2050, to be able to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
The Climate Crisis is on the same level as that of the global pandemic of 2020 and geopolitical wars occurring. If the trillions can be found for fighting pandemics and wars, then it can be found for climate change. This needs mass scale mobilisation of finance from public purses and financial markets. Countries will now need to update their NDCs by early 2025 and include all the areas outlined in the GST decision and will need funding for it.
COPs are slow arduous affairs, but this is a significant political moment as the UAE Consensus has been agreed in a country built that built its wealth mainly from oil and gas. To paraphrase the closing words of the COP President, Dr Sultan Al Jaber:
“We need to turn the agreement into actions and unite in action.”
COP28 President, Dr Sultan Al Jaber
Many areas around climate action by non-state actors was announced at this COP. One key one being the launch of the UAE based Alterra $30bn fund, chaired by Dr Sultan Al Jaber. This along with the multitude of financial commitments made in the first few days towards the climate-health nexus and climate-food were all welcome to see. These commitments now need to be mobilised and realised quickly to ensure the promises are not empty and go beyond the photo shoots and cute social media posts.
To see the level of engagement by SMEs, larger business, industry, civil society groups, youth and indigenous people was heartening. We saw many from the UAE sustainability business community, championed by Sustain UAE present at the COP in both the blue and green zones.
On 6th December, we were proud to participate in our own event at the Special COP28 edition of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, where we highlighted the importance of locally led nature-based solutions for climate and conservation. That we had a speaker, Neila Borari, from the Amazon in Brazil, shows the power of COPs as a convening platform. Bringing Neila’s powerful witness statement from the heart of the amazon to the Dubai audience was very moving - it showed us the need for humility and reminded us of the importance of safeguarding the rights of the most vulnerable to climate change. We thought it would not be possible to have Neila until the very last minute when we managed to secure a translator. This rollercoaster is the magic of COPs and the multilateral process.
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
Climate Change is a global problem that requires a global solution. This currently is the multilateral system of COPs. COPs are the only platform where the poorest and most vulnerable have a say in the matter and their vote counts the same as the richest. It was a privilege to have COP in the UAE and great to see what was achieved. However, the hard work begins now. We need to accelerate actions and bend down the curve of emissions as fast as possible. All while helping people adapt to the impacts of climate change and changing our financial system to ensure the trillions flow unhindered. At Earth Matters, we are ready to work with anyone that is serious about making the change happen.
EARTH MATTERS CONSULTING IS READY TO SUPPORT YOU IN YOUR JOURNEY, WHETHER YOU ARE A BUSINESS, GOVERNMENT ON NON-PROFIT ORGANISATION.
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